Inflation and Financial Development: Evidence

Abstract

The study examined the impact of inflation on financial development in Ghana using quarterly time series data (1990-2008). It was in line with the empirical works that provided support for the proposition that inflation affects financial development negatively. While price stability has been emphasized in the literature to be the best antidote in addressing the problem, recent evidence of disagreements on its definition and the ways to achieving it, coupled with, threshold effects between the two variables have questioned the precise link between the two variables and their acclaimed antidote. The study therefore made use of the Cointegration Approach the Granger Causality testing procedure suggested and the Conditional Least Squares technique to address these issues for the case of Ghana. The study established several statistically significant and economically meaningful relationships between the two variables. Pair-wise correlation analysis established a negative association between the two variables. In contrast, conflicting results were produced with regression analysis: the relationship between the two variables in the short run was established to be positive, while no relationship at all was established in the long run. Furthermore, a unidirectional causal link was established to be running from inflation to financial development; when the ratio of private sector credit to GDP and the market capitalization ratio were used as indicators for financial development. Lastly, threshold effects were observed in the inflation-financial development relation for inflation rates between 11-16% per annum. The study thus recommended the definition of price stability for inflation rates between 11-16% in support of financial development in Ghana. Additionally, it was recommended that the country should promote financial sector policies in a more holistic approach, as financial development does not granger cause inflation or inflationary pressures.